🔗 Share this article

Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|